Toni Karvonen

I am an Associate Professor in Applied Mathematics working at Lappeenranta–Lahti University of Technology LUT in Lappeenranta, Finland.

My research focuses on uncertainty quantification and model misspecification in numerical analysis, statistical modelling, and machine learning. I want to understand how using a wrong model affects the reliability of uncertainty quantification in order to develop robust and data-efficient numerical and statistical methods. I am particularly interested in models and methods that make use of positive-definite kernels, such as Gaussian process regression and radial basis function interpolation. Topics that I currently work on include

• uncertainty quantification and hyperparameter estimation in Gaussian process modelling,
• error analysis for kernel-based approximation,
• information-based complexity,
• theory of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces,
• probabilistic numerical methods, such as Bayesian quadrature.

See my full list of publications and my Google Scholar profile.

News

• Sep 2026: On 9–11 September 2026 we will organise ProbNum 2026, the 2nd International Conference on Probabilistic Numerics, at LUT University's Lappeenranta Campus.
• Jun 2025: I have received an Academy Research Fellowship to study misspecification in Gaussian process modelling and kernel-based approximation.

Research group

• Doctoral student Olivier Dondjio
• Doctoral student Subhendu Pramanick
• Doctoral student Eliane Mopo Youmssi (supervised with Tapio Helin)

We are part of the Applied Mathematics Research Unit in the Department of Computational Engineering at LUT University. We are also part of the FAME Flagship of Advanced Mathematics for Sensing, Imaging and Modelling funded by the Research Council of Finland.

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